Clock Ticking -- Loudly -- as Free Agency Nears

Posted Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Clock ticking – loudly – as free agency nears

The picture of the Pistons’ off-season reconstruction hasn’t emerged in sharp focus quite yet, one day before the curtain opens on free agency, but the outlines are taking shape. If you had to guess at what those identities will reveal, a good place to start would be Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon and … somebody else.

The allure of Villanueva became much stronger with Monday’s confirmation that Milwaukee will not make him a qualifying offer by today’s deadline. That was the suspicion since last week’s trade in which the Bucks gave back about $2 million of the cap space they cleared in the Richard Jefferson trade by adding Amir Johnson – who also happens to play Villanueva’s position.

Villanueva and Gordon – whose best option seems clearly to be the Pistons unless Chicago can unload Kirk Hinrich without taking back a comparable contract – would give the Pistons what Joe Dumars most wanted out of the Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson trade: a couple of core young pieces to add to Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince for the long haul. Oklahoma City has been another team linked to Gordon, but it appears the Thunder will more likely make a play for Utah’s Paul Millsap – a play with a far greater chance to succeed if Carlos Boozer elects to not opt out of his contract, which now seems more likely than not.

Villanueva is 24, Gordon is 26. Villanueva is coming off of clearly his best season and Gordon very likely his best, capped by a brilliant playoff series against Boston in which he played 43 minutes a game and carried Chicago’s offense for long stretches. Assuming both were signed to five-year contracts, they’d still be in the prime of their careers – Villanueva 29, Gordon 31 – when their deals expire.

How much of the Pistons’ cap space would it require to land both players? A reasonable guess is that Gordon’s deal would start at somewhere around $8 million a year and Villanueva’s a little less than that. Many teams probably would be willing to offer Villanueva their mid-level exception, expected to be around $5.5 million. Only a few can go higher. So something that starts slightly above the mid-level – let’s say $6.5 million – would be a deal that makes Villanueva’s side sit up and take a hard look.

If the cap comes in about where it was set at last year, that would still give the Pistons enough money – almost another mid-level exception equivalent slot – to attract another player.

Kwame Brown's decision to remain with the Pistons - he could have opted out of the $4.1 million due him for next season - gives the Pistons one more big man along with Jason Maxiell and potentially Villanueva, plus the three rookies drafted last week. The Pistons believe all three of Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers and Jonas Jerebko can play either forward position. It might be risky to presume any one of them, or any combination of the three, would be ready to handle minutes at power forward as rookies.

So that extra money – again, assuming a scenario that adds Gordon to a backcourt of Hamilton, Stuckey, Arron Afflalo and Will Bynum – probably will be targeted on the frontcourt. The Pistons almost surely would inquire about Antonio McDyess, though he might be able to get a full MLE deal from somebody – especially Houston, his adopted hometown, which is now openly musing about the possibility of Yao Ming’s season, if not his career, being wiped out.

Among the other attractive frontcourt unrestricted free agents are Cleveland’s Anderson Varejao, Toronto’s Shawn Marion and Utah’s Mehmet Okur, but all would cost more than the Pistons would have left. Some of the other possibilities include Brandon Bass (Dallas) and Zaza Pachulia (Atlanta) among unrestricted free agents; and Channing Frye (Portland), Glen Davis (Boston), Hakim Warrick (Memphis) and Marcin Gortat (Orlando) among restricted free agents.

If Villanueva were to sign elsewhere, it will be interesting to see what becomes of Boozer. Whispers that Boozer’s asking price is astronomical could be bluster from agent Rob Pelinka to drive up the price, but it’s uncertain who else is in the bidding for him, given the lack of teams with anything beyond a mid-level deal to offer.

If the Pistons were to sign Gordon, it’s likely that adding Boozer as well would require all of the remainder of their cap space. And that might be risky since it would leave the Pistons with only three veteran frontcourt players – and all the riskier given Boozer’s recent injury history.