What Are Piston Fans Hoping For in a Point Guard?

What Are Piston Fans Hoping For in a Point Guard?

Postby Piston Boris on Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:31 pm

MLive.com Full Court Press:

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First, Stuckey's stats this season:

•Regular: 17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.4 turnovers, 39 percent shooting, 82 percent free throws.
•Per-36 minutes: 16.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals.
•Analysis: His shooting percentage is certainly not great, but he's improved defensively this season and he's averaging almost two more rebounds per game above his career average. Is he a point guard? We'll get to that. The Pistons could certainly do much worse at the position.

The Best:

- Rajon Rondo, Boston: Averages nearly nine assists and three steals per game, shoots 54 percent from the field and is arguably the best, most disruptive backcourt defender in the league. Stuckey scores more, but if Rondo were not on a team with three future Hall of Famers, he would undoubtedly have a higher scoring average. Stuckey is also much, much better at the line. Still, Rondo is obviously superior at getting teammates involved.

- Jose Calderon, Toronto: Averages 13 points, 7 assists per game, very competently runs Toronto's offense. He has three-point range and shoots 50 percent overall from the floor. It's pretty rare for point guards not named Nash to shoot threes but still have an overall FG% over 50. Defensively, though, Stuckey is much better. Calderon routinely gets worked by opposing PGs. Stuckey is strong enough and quick enough to hold his own.

- Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee: He's only played 13 games in his career, but he's clearly a special player already. So far, he's scoring almost 24 points per game, with about four rebounds six assists and a steal per night and shooting 45 percent, including 47 percent on threes. His ceiling is clearly much higher than Stuckey's.

- Jameer Nelson, Orlando: His assist stats aren't gaudy, and he did get some help in running the offense from Hedo Turkoglu, who's more of a point forward, the last few years, but Jameer did average 17 points, five assists and just two turnovers while shooting 50 percent last season. He's also their crunch-time scorer. He's had injury problems, but he's a very solid point guard who brings a bit more to the table than Stuckey.

- Gilbert Arenas, Washington: If we're talking contract and injury history, Arenas probably gets bumped down into the second category. But strictly based on on-court producting, Gil scores about 23 a game with six assists. His turnovers are way too high -- four a game -- and he's shooting 39 percent, but he's coming off a series of knee injuries, so it may take a few more weeks of basketball to truly evaluate Gil's value. If he's anywhere near healthy Gil, he's one of the league's best scorers. He might not be a true point, but he has the ball in his hands a ton and averages six assists a game for his career, so he can get teammates involved when he wants to.

- Jason Kidd, Dallas: He's well into the downside of his career, but he still runs an offense as well as any elite point guard in the league. He's never shot particularly well, but he makes everyone he plays with better. No question that Stuckey doesn't have the ability to do that yet.

- Tony Parker, San Antonio: He's perennially underrated, but he's been one of the best in the league for several years. No opposing guard can stay in front of him, he shoots 50 percent and he runs an offense for one of the best teams in the league for one of the most demanding coaches.

- Chris Paul, New Orleans: Paul is arguably the best player in basketball regardless of position. He is a future MVP, and may have already been jobbed out of it in 2008. Stuckey's just nowhere near his level, and that's no insult to Stuckey.

- Deron Williams, Utah: He's not Paul, but he's very close. These guys are two the best young players in the league, and were from the minute they were drafted.

- Chauncey Billups, Denver: He'll get his 16 and six and run Denver's halfcourt offense as good or better than any PG runs a halfcourt in this league. He also shoots a low percentage and can't defend small, quick guards. He's elite, but not without flaws. Still, he's far superior to Stuckey as a PG.

- Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City: This one is largely based on potential. He's been good so far in his career -- getting about 17 points with seven assists and four turnovers per game this season. He's not necessarily a tradional PG, but he takes a lot of crunch-time shots despite Kevin Durant's presence and he's going to potentially be one of the best in the league in a few seasons. Right now, he's slightly better than Derrick Rose statistically, which no one say coming after the 2008 draft.

- Derrick Rose, Chicago: If you're starting a franchise and get to choose between Rose and Stuckey, you're taking Rose in a second. But right now they are pretty similar players. Rose's PER this season is 14.5. Stuckey's is 14.6. Rose shoots a better percentage and is no doubt a pure point guard, but he's also not quite the Chris Paul-level talent yet most considered him when he was the No. 1 pick. He could still get there, but not having a great scorer like Ben Gordon next to him has hurt him statistically a bit. Rose has far, far superior skills that are yet to develop and is a better finisher.

- Steve Nash, Phoenix: He's really a remarkable player. I don't think he was the best player in the league either year he won his MVPs, but he also wasn't an egregious choice. He, like Kidd, makes everyone who plays with him better. He, unlike Kidd, is an amazing shooter. He shoots 52 percent from the floor, 45 percent from three. Unreal numbers for a guard. His defense is, and always has been, terrible, and he's not as great as a half-court point guard as last season with Shaq showed, but any team would live with that.

- Tyreke Evans, Sacramento: Another young guy who's unproven, but numbers-wise so far, he's also been a bit better than Rose. He's close to even with Stuckey right now, but long-term, Evans is just going to be a superior player which, again, isn't a knock on Stuckey.

The Middle:

- Lou Williams, Philadelphia: Points, steals and turnovers are about the same. Stuckey rebounds better, Williams gets more assists and shoots a higher percentage, Stuckey is a better defensinve player. Both are shoot-first PGs. Truth be told, Williams is a bit better, but he's also had two seasons of being a Sixth Man, learning the position from Andre Miller. Stuckey's mentor was traded and he's been forced to learn on the job.

- Devin Harris, New Jersey: He had a great season last year, averaging 21 points and seven assists. He's slid back this season, recovering from injuries, to 13 and 6. He's also shooting only 34 percent. Harris is quicker than Stuckey and has a more consistent perimeter jumper. They're pretty even defensively and both are shoot-first, non-traditional point guards. Harris has. Harris has six years experience to Stuckey's three. I'd bet on Stuckey getting better before I'd bet on Harris at this point, not that Harris is a bad player by any stretch.

- Mo Williams, Cleveland: Good for 17 points, five assists and a steal per night. He's a great spot-up shooter and has improved drastically on defense since arriving in Cleveland. He's always been a shoot-first point guard and he has little responsibility for running the offense since the ball is usually in LeBron's hands. Right now, Williams is probably a tad better because of his range, but Stuckey's right there statistically with him.

- Aaron Brooks, Houston: Averages 16 points, five assists and three turnovers on 43 percent shooting. He's exciting because he's incredibly streaky, but he's shoot-first and he's not a good defensive player.

- Andre Miller, Portland: Steve Blake technically starts, but Andre Miller is their best PG, so we'll go with him. He scores about 11 points and five assists a game. He might be declining some, might not have been in the greatest shape to start the season, has never been a particularly good perimeter shooter, but he's very solid. His defense has improved this season, but for his career, he's been about average or slightly below. Also, Brandon Roy mostly runs the offense, so Portlands points don't have the typical PG responsibilities.

- Baron Davis, LA Clippers: Davis should be up in the top level, but injuries and effort have plagued his career. He's scoring 16 a game with seven assists, but only shooting 39 percent. He gets to the line, when he wants to, better than any guard in the league. When he's on, he's unguardable. Unfortunately, signing with the perenially dysfunctional Clippers may have been the worst thing for his career. He's absolutely better than Stuckey when he's on, but with Stuckey, the effort will never be a problem and statistically, he'll get similar numbers many nights.

- Steph Curry, Golden State: They're trying to make him a point guard, and he's been solid so far, scoring 10 a night, shooting 45 percent and getting five assists against just two turnovers. He might be less of a true point guard than Stuckey though, and he's not a particularly good defender. Playing on Golden State will certainly not help him develop as a defender either.

[...]

Where to put Stuckey?: Looking at starting point guards in the league, top to bottom, these are the only guys I'd put as truly great players right at this moment: Nash, Williams, Paul, Billups, Kidd, Parker, Jennings, Rondo.

Westbrook, Rose and Evans are all going to join that group very soon. Calderon, Nelson and Arenas all do things well, but all have flaws.

From the middle, these guys are probably better, although the stats are close: Harris, Mo Williams and Lou Williams.

Really, only eight teams can say they are getting transcendant point guard play every night. Three other teams think they have guys who will get them there. There are a bunch of teams with good players at the point, but who all also bring some deficiencies to the table. Stuckey is definitely not in the top 11 in the league, but I wouldn't put him lower than top 20 either. Many teams in the league are in the same boat as the Pistons when it comes to point guard play.

Don't focus on the assists: Stuckey's assist average is down this season, that's not debatable. But there are other factors that contribute to it.

- The Pistons play at the slowest pace in the league, meaning they get fewer possessions per game than most teams. Nash, for example, racks up more assists because the Suns play fast and have the ball on offense more times, thus more assist chances.

- Rip Hamilton's injury affects the assist total. Hamilton, because of his style of play, relies on assists from other players to score. How many Hamilton curls and 15-footers over the years resulted in assists for Billups? Stuckey's averaging two fewer assists this year than last. It's pretty safe to say he may collect a couple more per game once Hamilton is back.

Those points aren't to say that Stuckey doesn't have trouble sometimes finding open teammates. He does, it's obvious to anyone who watches him drive inside and often get hung up with nowhere to go, usually resulting in a forced shot. His vision once he's inside is something he'll certainly have to improve, but if we're judging him as a point guard by his assist average, he's probably never going to average more than five or six a night, and a lot of NBA teams are in that same boat. It's not a big deal. Few guys exist out there who make the game easier. Nashes, Pauls and Williamses don't come along that often.
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Re: What Are Piston Fans Hoping For in a Point Guard?

Postby Piston Boris on Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:34 pm

Ever since Dumars singled Stuckey out as untouchable, people have been expecting him to be a 20+ point and 10 assist point guard.

I think Stuckey could average 17-21 points, 4 assists, and 5 rebounds.

If Stuckey won't be a top 5 point guard, the Pistons can do worse to have someone who's a top 20 point guard.

We'll see what his ceiling is, but Stuckey's not chopped liver (and Bynum's not a top 10 point guard neither).
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Re: What Are Piston Fans Hoping For in a Point Guard?

Postby Crusher on Sat Nov 28, 2009 11:50 pm

Stuck would be a decent side kick for Kobe.

I'd say he could prolly be put in the middle group of top point guards. If playmaking isn't his strength now, it'll never be. But I can see him improving as a shooter.

I wonder if he'll get a post game? It'll make him better. But for his size, he doesn't seem to be that athletic since he hardly ever dunks.
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Re: What Are Piston Fans Hoping For in a Point Guard?

Postby Built Piston Tough on Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:14 am

Dumars won't let Stuck go to LA for nothing. Detroit's not Memphis.

I seriously disagree with the first 5 names in the "best" category.

Rondo doesn't shoot (and he's dirty), Calderon doesn't defend, Jennings is a scorer, but I don't know if he's a playmaker, and Nelson's an average undersized passer who's injury prone now.

I'd put Stuckey and these 5 in the "middle".
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