The last word on Bayless

One final word about Jerryd Bayless
July 20th, 2009 by Dwight Jaynes | No Comments | Filed in NBA, Trail Blazers

I talked to three people last night not connected to the Trail Blazer organization who were on hand in Las Vegas for the summer league. After promising anonymity I got some very frank observations. Everyone seemed to see him the same way:

“He’s a pretty good player. He can get to the basket and he can score. But he’s not a point guard. He can bring the ball up, I think. But he doesn’t see other people. He doesn’t seem to know how to create for other people or when to get them the ball. He’s not a playmaker.”

“He’s got a scorer’s mentality. He will score. He needs to get better from the outside. If he can hit a jump shot he’s going to be tough to defend. But I didn’t seen him hit many.”

“He could be a point guard, just not in the traditional sense. He’s not going to set a lot of people up. He’s a scorer and a tough kid. I’m not sure how well he’ll defend 2s, though. He might be better off with a team that can just let him be what he is — a guy who wants to go to the basket. But he needs to learn how to get the ball to people if he’s stopped.”

People have accused me in the comments of being down on Bayless and that’s not the case. I’m just trying to objectively speak about him as this team’s point guard of the future. I’ve thought since last season he just doesn’t have that point guard mentality and it’s something that’s pretty difficult to instill at this point of a player’s career.

There is no question in my mind a deal will be made for another point guard before the season opens.

We surely saw a different Jerryd Bayless in this year's Summer League than last. He appeared to have a better sense of who he was and what his job was. For the most part, turnovers and occasional spazzing aside, he played with control and awareness. We got a little less of the one-track freight train this year. That was bad for his scoring (as that train wasn't going to be stopped) but good for his point guard development. "Decision making" by definition involves more than one option. Whether he executed perfectly or not, Bayless recognized more possibilities on the floor last week than he showed last year.

Those wishing for more would do well to look at the calendar, which reads about two months since the Blazers' 2008-09 campaign ended. There's a temptation to draw a clear dividing line between seasons, expecting Bayless to play like a second-year guy now. In reality I don't expect eight weeks to make a huge difference, especially when the skills being developed are point guard-oriented. It's hard to practice those outside of the team structure. I'd expect Jerryd to develop more during the regular season than the break, at least in that vein. The jump shot's a summer project. Becoming a floor general, not so much.

That said, it was still jarring to see how far Bayless has yet to go, especially considering right now he's penciled in as the top reserve at his position. (I expect that to change before the season starts.) Whatever you think of his potential, I think it's fair to say at this point that point guard is not Jerryd's natural position, or at least that it's far more natural by height than inclination. With last week's increased recognition came increased processing time. You could almost see the wheels turning inside his head. Apparently opponents could read them as well, judging by the forced miscues. You just can't spin that many turnovers at the Summer League level as a positive, or even barely encouraging. You want to argue this guy is ready to be an NBA player? I could see that. You want to argue this guy is ready to be an NBA point guard? Yeesh. It's going to be a painful process.

So how are the Blazers and their fans supposed to regard Bayless? What are they supposed to do with him?

There are tons of reasons to take a chance on Bayless. His body is great. His defense is good. His rim-scoring ability is awe-inspiring. He's as athletic as you could wish. He's a workaholic. He's aggressive. When he's at his best, usually with the ball on the way to the hoop, he's downright awe-inspiring. All of this comes from a kid who really doesn't have a clue what he's doing yet.

There are also reasons to be suspicious of Jerryd. Right now the Blazers have to use him as a point guard and he's not one. Point guard is a difficult position to play even when you're born and bred to it. Successful converted point guards are rare. While inspiring, Jerryd's offensive game is like a song with two chords...and they're both E-major. He doesn't have a jump shot. Opponents are going to play him for the drive until he develops one. Jerryd's intensity can be a double-edged sword. He can sometimes be his own worst enemy emotionally. The step from there to becoming a problem/distraction is short...not intentionally, but simply because your drama and angst are overshadowing everything else. Bayless isn't going to take a Travis Outlaw-like leisurely career arc with the Blazers. You won't see seven years pass while he figures things out. He's either going to blow up huge or flame out.

What does this add up to? Jerryd is the Blazers' long-shot. If he is able to man the one position, especially if he can learn to play with Roy, he could become a dominant player. Roy would slice and dice you while Bayless came down like thunder on your heads. Add the defense and physicality and you've got yourself a backcourt for the ages. But the chances of him getting there are slim.