Rajon Rondo's Shot Not Improving

Rajon Rondo’s Step Back
By Zach Lowe, CelticsHub.com @ July 24th, 8:00 am



A current list of my obsessions might look something like this:

1) Mila Kunis

2) Discussing ways in which the Harry Potter movies deviate from the books

3) Rajon Rondo’s jump shot.

4) Finding a new apartment in New York

Since this is a basketball blog, I won’t discuss the dreaminess of Mila in “Forgetting Sarah Marshall,” the lack of Voldemort flashbacks in “Half-Blood Prince” or how creating a fake new nickname for the financial district (the “FinDi”) is wrong on at least three different levels.

I will discuss Rajon Rondo’s jump shot, because it is the one thing preventing the Celtics from developing a truly elite offense. With all the KG-inspired focus on the C’s defense the last two seasons, the casual fans have overlooked the fact that the C’s have had a very good to excellent offense since the Big Three arrived. Last year they were fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency (110.5 points per possessions); in their 2008 title season, they ranked 10th in offensive efficiency, at 110.2. The best offenses of the post-Bird/Magic here (the Jordan Bulls and Nash Suns) have averaged about 114 points per 100 possessions, so the Celtics are a boost away from that sort of greatness.

This despite having a point guard who, outside of occasional flashes, cannot shoot jump shots. And if you don’t think it’s nice when your point guard can shoot, check out the great Jon Nichols’ study (available here at Hardwood Paroxysm) on how good three-point shooting PG impacts a team’s offensive efficiency.

Rajon is nowhere near becoming a good three-point shooter, of course. But I think we’d all settle for some progress on the 15- to 20-foot two-pointers. Unfortunately, we saw no progress between 2008 and 2009. Here are the numbers, using NBA’s hot spot data for every chunk of time other than the 2009 playoffs, which the hot spot data doesn’t include. For the 2009 playoffs, I went through Rajon’s shot charts for all 14 C’s games and tracked only shots from outside 15 feet.

First, the regular season:

2007-8 Regular Season 2008-9 Regular Season

At the rim 220-405 (54%) 283-497 (57%)

Floaters 42-108 (39%) 32-90 (36%)

Long twos 84-186 (45%) 51-117 (43.5%)

Threes 5-17 (29%) 15-48 (31%)

With teams daring him to shoot, Rondo lowered his head and darted his way to the rim with even more determination in 2009. On the one hand, this is a good thing. He hits a high percentage of his in-close shots, and his penetration breaks down the defense and creates open looks for everyone else.
On the other hand, an elite defensive team will find a way to limit his penetration opportunities to floaters instead of lay-ups at the rim. This is what killed Rondo against the Magic. Their point guards sagged off of Rondo, content to let him shoot jumpers, knowing that their perimeter defensive skills and Dwight Howard’s presence would prevent Rajon from breaching beyond the “floater” area. It worked, Rondo’s post-season run sputtered to a mediocre end, and the C’s went home.

Let’s look at the playoff numbers, focusing on the only two-point jumpers outside of 15 feet.

2008 playoffs: 31-63 (50%) in 26 games

2009 playoffs: 23-76 (30%) in 14 games

Ouch.

Rondo’s proficiency on jumpers in the 2008 playoffs was an under-rated reason the Celtics were able to win the title. It probably didn’t crack the top 10 reasons, but the fact that he wasn’t a complete liability forced defenses to guard the Celtics honestly. And good offensive teams can find ways to score against honest defenses.

Orlando didn’t have to do that this season, and that was surely in the top 10 reasons the C’s lost that series.

Get to work, Rajon. (Even it means jacking up your asking price after next season).

Shooting coach Mark Price says don't expect things to change over night and don't expect miracles. But he says by the time the playoffs come around in April, you should expect Rajon Rondo to shoot the ball better than he ever has before.

"I've had guys whose shots looked a whole lot worse," said Price. "It wasn't a total remake of his shot."

"Rajon brings the ball back behind his head a little bit. Good shooters should keep the ball out in front a little bit," said Price. "The other thing is his elbow has a tendency to fly out a little bit. We tried to keep his elbows in. He also has a tendency on 'the catch' to throw his elbows out. When you do that, you have to move them back in to get the shot up. That was one of the things slowing down his release a bit."

"He has a tendency to play standing straight up," said Price. "You want to be in playing position, more in ready position."

The irony is that Rondo has spent the last 15 months playing right beside Allen, one of the greatest jump shooters of this generation.

"When I'm working with guys I mention Ray Allen a lot," said Price. "Ray's footwork, particularly before he gets the ball is as good as it gets. That's why his release is so quick. He's ready to shoot the ball before he has it ... It really wouldn't have done much good last year, because Rajon wouldn't know what to look for. Now he does. He'll learn a lot watching Ray."

Price said that it will take patience for the fans and, especially, Rondo, to wait this transformation out.

Just like when Tiger Woods changed his golf swing in 2005.

"The hardest thing is you miss a shots and struggle for a while. The temptation is to go back to the old way," said Price.

"I like Rajon because he's a worker and he wants to be great," said Price. "He tried to implement the stuff we talked about. It's going to take time. The next step is taking it from the practice floor into the game and sticking with it."